The Emerging Features of Healthcare Supply Chain Resilience: Learning from a Pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed significant fragilities in the configuration of global healthcare supply chains. This was felt acutely by citizens, patients and healthcare workers across Canada. As demand for critical medical products surged in Canada, and globally, provincial healthcare supply chain teams worked to rapidly stabilize their supply chains. These efforts indicate the emerging features of healthcare supply chain resilience. Results suggest that there are five emerging features: (1) redundancy of supply inventory; (2) diversification of suppliers across geographies; (3) maturity of digital infrastructure to create transparency; (4) proactivity; and (5) equity of distribution to protect the lives of all.

Learning models for forecasting hospital resource utilization for COVID-19 patients in Canada.

Hospitals in Canada are facing a crisis-level shortage of critical supplies and equipment during the COVID-19 pandemic. This motivates us to create predictive models that can use Canada COVID-19 data and pandemic-related factors to accurately forecast 5 quantities-three related to hospital resource utilization (i.e., the number of hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators that will be needed by COVID-19 patients) and two to the pandemic progress (i.e., the number of COVID-19 cases and COVID-19 deaths)-several weeks in advance. We developed a machine learning method that can use information (i.e., resource utilization, pandemic progress, population mobility, weather condition, and public policy) currently known about a region since March 2020, to learn multiple temporal convolutional network (TCN) models every week; each used for forecasting the weekly average of one of these 5 quantities in Canada (respectively, in six specific provinces) for each, in the next 1 (resp., 2,3,4) weeks. To validate the effectiveness of our method, we compared our method, versus other standard models, on the COVID-19 data and hospital resource data, on the tasks of predicting the 116 values (for Canada and its six most populated provinces), every week from Oct 2020 to July 2021, and the 20 values (only for Canada) for four specific times within 9 July to 31 Dec 2021. Experimental results show that our 4640 TCN models (each forecasting a regional target for a specific future time, on a specific date) can produce accurate 1,2,3,4-week forecasts of the utilization of every hospital resource and pandemic progress for each week from 2 Oct 2020 to 2 July 2021, as well as 80 TCN models for each of the four specified times within 9 July and 31 Dec 2021. Compared to other baseline and state-of-the-art predictive models, our TCN models yielded the best forecasts, with the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Additional experiments, on the IHME COVID-19 data, demonstrate the effectiveness of our TCN models, in comparison with IHME forecasts. Each of our TCN models used a pre-defined set of features; we experimentally validate the effectiveness of these features by showing that these models perform better than other models that instead used other features. Overall, these experimental results demonstrate that our method can accurately forecast hospital resource utilization and pandemic progress for Canada and for each of the six provinces.

Digitally enabled supply chain as a strategic asset for the COVID-19 response in Alberta.

This provincial case study, one of seven conducted as part of a national research program on healthcare supply chain management during COVID-19, focuses on Alberta. With a history of emergency preparedness, Alberta's unique context, one that includes having an already established, centralized, and digital healthcare supply chain strategy, sets this case apart from the others in terms of pandemic responses. A key challenge navigated by Alberta was the inadequacies of traditional sourcing and procurement approaches to meet surges in product demand, which was overcome by the implementation of unique procurement strategies. Opportunities for Alberta included the integration of supply chain teams into senior leadership structures, which enabled access to data to inform public health decision-making. This case demonstrated how Alberta's healthcare supply chain assets-its supply chain infrastructure, data, and leadership expertise, especially-contributed to resilient supply chain capacity across the province.

Supply chain integration as a strategy to strengthen pandemic responsiveness in Nova Scotia.

This provincial case study, one of seven conducted as part of a national research program on healthcare supply chain management during COVID-19, focuses on Nova Scotia. During the first wave of the pandemic, Nova Scotia faced the massive destabilization of its traditional supply channels and had to grapple with role clarity and communication in its emergency response structure. Nova Scotia was able to centralize its pandemic sourcing, procurement, and management efforts to its provincial health authority. Healthcare supply chain teams were able to rapidly modify their sourcing and procurement processes in order to compensate for the destabilization of their standard supply channels and assume responsibility for the province-wide management and distribution of pandemic supplies. The Nova Scotia case findings make clear both the value of a centralized and dedicated healthcare supply chain response-that integrates all provincial care delivery organizations-and the diversification of the healthcare supply chain.

Supply chain capacity to respond to COVID-19 in Newfoundland and Labrador: An integrated leadership strategy.

This provincial case study, one of seven conducted as part of a national research program on healthcare supply chain management during COVID-19, focuses on Newfoundland and Labrador (NL). Faced with the destabilization of its traditional supply chain, NL leveraged an existing centralized healthcare supply chain structure to organize its supply chain response to the pandemic. To overcome product shortages, health leaders collaborated with their local business community and industries to source and procure personal protective equipment and create domestic manufacturing capacity for critical supplies. The healthcare supply chain response in NL demonstrates the value of a highly integrated and centralized healthcare supply chain management strategy. It also makes clear the value of a diversified healthcare supply chain, one which draws on local manufacturing capacity to create a domestic source of critical supplies and overcome shortages from global suppliers.

Supply chain capacity to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario: Challenges faced by a health system in transition.

This provincial case study, one of seven conducted as part of a national research program on healthcare supply chain management during COVID-19, focuses on Ontario. The context of significant restructuring of health organizations and regions in Ontario challenged the province's capacity to respond to COVID-19. A complex leadership structure, led by political leaders, with limited healthcare supply chain expertise at decision-making tables and a prioritization of "hospitals first" early in the first wave were described as challenges Ontario faced in managing the pandemic. A lack of supply chain digital infrastructure-and consequently, lack of available data-meant informed decision-making regarding supply utilization and demand forecasting was not possible. The Ontario case presents key lessons learned regarding the unintended consequences of lack of supply chain coordination across organizations, and the prioritization of hospitals and allocation strategies on Canada's most vulnerable population segments.

COVID-19, Workforce Autonomy and the Health Supply Chain.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the rapid surge in demand for critical supplies and public health efforts needed to guard against virus transmission have placed enormous pressure on health systems worldwide. These pressures and the uncertainty they have created have impacted the health workforce in a substantial way. This paper examines the relationship between health supply chain capacity and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Canada's health workforce. The findings of this research also highlight the impact of the pandemic on health workers, specifically the relationship between the health supply chain and the autonomy of the health workforce.

An Evidence-Based Strategy to Scale Vaccination in Canada.

Provincial health systems have been challenged by the surge in healthcare demands caused by the COVID-19 pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccine rollout across the country has further added to these challenges. A successful vaccination campaign is widely viewed as the only way to overcome the COVID-19 pandemic, placing greater urgency on the need for a rapid vaccination strategy. In this paper, we present emerging findings, from a national research study, that document the key challenges faced by current vaccine rollout strategies, which include procurement and leadership strategies, citizen engagement and limitations in supply chain capacity. These findings are used to inform a scalable vaccine strategy comprising collaborative leadership, mobilization of an integrated workforce and a digitally enabled supply chain strategy. The goal of vaccinating the entire Canadian population in the next few months can be achieved when supported by such a strategy.

Key Characteristics of a Fragile Healthcare Supply Chain: Learning from a Pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the many challenges that provincial health systems have experienced while scaling health services to protect Canadians from viral transmission and support care for those who get infected. Supply chain capacity makes it possible for health systems to deliver care and implement public health initiatives safely. In this paper, we present emerging findings from a national research study that documents the key features of the fragility of the health supply chain evident across the seven Canadian provinces. Results suggest that the fragility of the health supply chain contributes to substantive challenges across health systems, thus limiting or precluding proactive and comprehensive responses to pandemic management. These findings inform strategies to strengthen supply chain capacity and performance in order to enable health systems to effectively respond to pandemic events.

"Flying Blind": Canada's Supply Chain Infrastructure and the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Canada's COVID-19 response has been described as slow, with reactive decision making that has left the most vulnerable populations at risk of infection and death from the virus. Yet, within and across the provincial health systems, the supply chain processes and data infrastructure needed to generate the relevant data for, and evidence of, the spread of COVID-19 and the health system's capacity to respond to the pandemic are non-existent in Canada. Emerging evidence from a national research study highlights the significance of supply chain data infrastructure and processes that offer transparent, real-time data to inform decisions that support a coordinated, evidence-informed pandemic strategy that is proactive and capable of protecting the health of every Canadian.